Brad – I’m studying this topic, and it has me wondering if you’s share with me the formulae you are using in the SSG part 4 calculation. There are several formulae available in Excel, and I’d like to use the same as you’re using so that the data is comparable.
Any thoughts you’d care to share would be most welcome. I want to know what my portfolio is “returning”, and what each stock in it is likewise, because improvement of the Port’s return will only come from improving individual stock components.
I am really enjoying the SIG program. It seems to work flawlessly on my iMac, and I appreciate how I can go to it while another window is open and do an SSG and come back to a spreadsheet with the data needed. Great.
In the “PAR – Portfolio Analysis Review” segment, the table includes a column “% Rtn”. This I gather is the same as the Total Return figure from Part 4 of the SSG. The “PAR” return figure on the SSG is projected average return? And which return figure should I be using – Total Return, or PAR?
Great questions, which I think I will also post on my blog for all my users. (Don’t worry, I won’t use anything more than just your first name). There are, as you pointed out, a couple of different return calculations in the Stock Investment Guide (and Toolkit as well). There are some definitions available in SIG, if you enable Help Tags in preferences then point at the “P.A.R.” or the “Tot. Return” labels.
The following is actually from my InvestEd Presentation called Dig Deeper into the Stock Study Form that I presented in 2011.
Please let me know if you have any further questions. You are correct that the Portfolio Analysis Review Form uses Total Return.
Please let me know if you have any questions.
Total Return, called Compound Annual Total Return in Toolkit
Indicates total return if your stock achieves the selected high price and dividend is collected for 5 years
- Compounded growth rate to reach selected high price in analysis plus the 5-year stock yield
- Tot Return = 100*(1-(High Price / Current Price)1/5) + 5 yr Yield
= 100*(1-(High Price / Current Price)0.2) + 5 yr Yield
5 Year Yield = 100*(Ave Payout * Projected EPS) / Selected High Price
Projected Average Return
Indicates the total return if you stock achieves a high price a the Average PE and average dividend is collected for 5 years.
- Compounded growth rate to reach a high price at the average PE ratio plus an average 5-year yield
- PAR = 100*(1-((Proj EPS*Ave PE Ratio)/Current Price)1/5) + 5 yr Ave Yield
= 100*(1-((Proj EPS*Ave PE Ratio)/Current Price)0.2) + 5 yr Ave Yield
5 Year Ave Yield = Average Dividend / Average Price =
(Ave Payout * Ave EPS) / (Ave PE * Ave EPS) =
Ave Payout / Ave PE
(Note Ave EPS cancels out in the 5 Year Ave Yield formula.)
My friend John Tonsager who is an InvestEd instructor shared this article with me. Investors should be aware of changes regarding 401(k) statements. -Brad
Now more than ever, the onus is on you to save for retirement. With most companies having done away with traditional pension plans, 401(k)s and other contribution-based retirement plans have become the norm. And with their growing popularity comes growing scrutiny, with 401(k)s getting a lot of criticism over the years for having high fees that are hard even to discover.
That’s about to change with your next 401(k) statement.
Stock Investment Guide has been updated to version 3.2.1.
The Stock Investment Guide is the leading software application for Macintosh as well as Windows that provides stock clubs and individual investors with powerful analysis tools for analyzing common stocks. Do you ever wonder if you are paying too much for a stock? The Stock Investment Guide will remove that uncertainty by showing users if a stock is inexpensive or overpriced based on historical ranges and future projections.
Version 3.2.1 includes some minor bug corrections and enhancements. For Macintosh users, version 3.2.1 is signed as required for easy installation under OS X “Mountain Lion.”
To upgrade or try the free demo, please visit http://churr.com/downloads.shtml
I wanted to post a special notice for some of my users. If you use the Free Data option, I am aware that this feature is not functioning properly at this time. This is due to changes in the data sources which cause the data to not be read correctly. I am working on a solutions, but the changes are extensive enough that I am having to complete quite a bit of new code.
So far, I have sales, EPS, net income, tax rates, and yearly high/low prices complete. I still need to see what data is available for dividends, book value per share, and quarterly results figures.
UPDATE: I now have dividends and book value per share complete. With the Annual Data table complete, I am now working on the quarterly results table.
If you are stuck and need a solution now, I recommend you try the free trial at Stock Central which does not require a credit card to try their service. In fact, I recommend their service for US equities. It is what I use in the Stock Investment Guide software.
I am beginning to develop class material for the 2012 InvestEd conference in Charlotte, NC on June 8-10. I have as one of my selected topics “Dividend Stocks for Growth Investors.”
I have some dividend paying stocks that have become a cornerstone of my portfolio, helping me to handily beat the S&P 500 in 2011 (and 2009-2010). Some of it has been because I used Better Investing principles and bought the stocks at reasonable prices, but reinvested dividends have contributed too.
Do you have any dividend paying stocks that have done very well in your portfolio? Add a comment below! If you don’t want to respond on the Stock Investment Guide blog, then use the Contact Us form and send an email message to me.
While I am writing about InvestEd, allow me the opportunity to encourage you to consider attending this conference. They have some great classes taught by outstanding instructors (and I am not talking about myself)!
Visit the InvestEd Registration Page for details.
I received a nice surprise this week when my friend Matt Willms from Quant IX Software sent a message to me with congratulations for being featured by AAII. AAII stands for the American Association of Individual Investors.
The AAII is a great organization who has created some great analysis tools and educational contents for many years. Thus, I was quite pleased to learn they highlighted the Stock Investment Guide software in their 1Q 2012 issue of Computerized Investing.
They included several paragraphs describing SIG and the functions performed by the software. Near the end of the article, they recommend the software saying, “Overall, this program stands out as something all users of fundamental analysis should try, especially given the free trial period available.”
I realize I have allowed my blog to languish just a bit. Several users pointed out that I had disabled the registration link. I did so because of some misbehaving spammers. You should be able to register now at: http://churr.com/blog/wp-login.php?action=register
I also failed to post about a couple of software updates. The current version is 3.1.9. You can check to see if you need the update from within SIG by using Help>Check For Updates. You can download the latest version at http://churr.com/downloads.shtml
I also recommend that my users open up Preferences and enable the option to “Automatically Check For Updates.” This function does not reveal any information about your computer. It simply looks at a small text file on my web site that includes the current version number. Then SIG can tell you if an update is available. The automatic function only checks if more than 7 days have passed since the last check.
Well, I finally realized that I did not activate the register link for this blog… No wonder I have had only a few postings for comments on these articles.
If you would like, please register and join the discussions. I would be interested in your investing ideas, or your buys and sells.
One additional change was required to account for the new security settings in the Stock Central data feed. I had previously overlooked the toolbar button for batch updating data files in the Library Window.
You can obtain the update to 3.1.7 for free if you are a registered user at: http://churr.com/downloads.shtml
The Stock Investment Guide 3 has been updated to version 3.1.6. This change is to account for some changes in the StockCentral.com data stream, because Better Investing added additional access security measures.
To upgrade, simply use the Help menu in the Stock Investment Guide, Help > Check for Updates. You may also simply download the new version on our downloads page.